Maybe the Bayesian school can offer us some insight in operational risk by defining management causality that cannot be measured adequately using VaR, RAROC or EVA (economic value-added). Bayesian networks constitute a branch of Bayesian conditional probability theory, e.g.
Prob ( A) = Prob( B ) given Prob(C )
Where A, B, C are discrete events.
Prob (company defaulting) = Prob (20 % share price fall ) given Prob (bad CEO)
This has some potential for creating deductive causal links in the loss database.
The use of Bayesian probability has uses in VaR in that we can build conditional VaR modelling.